Seven tools for thinking #3: The “surely” klaxon
Rumack: Can you fly this plane and land it? Striker: Surely you can't be serious? Rumack: I am serious. And don't call me Shirley. Airplane, 1980 It's natural to want to build consensus. We're all guilty of sometimes assuming that what we think is true or reasonable will be thought true and reasonable by everybody else. Often though, what we decide is true is just wishful thinking. Sometimes this is simply lazy thinking, sometimes it's bullshit. I've written before on how to spot and avoid bullshit: it's a fine line between calling bullshit and applying the principle of charity. A good rule of thumb [...]
